13-week cash forecast: the method for CFOs in French-speaking Africa

Why 13 weeks and not 12 or 26

The 13-week (one-quarter) format has become the standard for short-term cash forecasting in Europe and North America, and is gradually spreading in French-speaking Africa.

Over 13 weeks, you cover visible commitments (open POs, invoices to pay, scheduled tax liabilities) and the seasonality of one quarter. Beyond that, reliability drops sharply because customer collections become uncertain.

Weekly granularity is essential. At monthly resolution, a cash spike on the 15th of the month goes unnoticed. At weekly resolution, you see exactly which week will be tight.

Direct vs indirect method

Two approaches exist. The indirect method starts from net income and applies adjustments (depreciation, working capital change) to arrive at cash. That's what the SYSCOHADA Revised annual Cash Flow Statement (TFT) produces.

The direct method, more operational, separately lists all receipts (customers, other) and all disbursements (suppliers, payroll, tax, bank). That's the one suited to 13-week forecasting.

For an OHADA SME, the direct method is more natural because it matches the operational reality the CFO sees: who pays what, when, and from which account.

The data sources to connect

Receipt side: customer order book, issued unpaid invoices, negotiated payment schedules, sales-force forecasts. The auxiliary balance of class 411 (customers) gives the stock of receivables.

Disbursement side: received unpaid supplier invoices, open POs that will generate invoices, negotiated payment schedules. The auxiliary balance of class 401 (suppliers) gives the stock of payables.

Constraints side: tax due dates (VAT, corporate tax, payroll tax, social security), bank due dates (loan installments, interest, bills of exchange), payroll (first or last day of month per convention). The national tax calendar drives those dates.

Three scenarios to model

Base scenario: receipts at contractual terms, disbursements at negotiated terms. The expected case if everything goes to plan.

Downside scenario: 15-30 day slippage on customer collections (a large customer drifts), unchanged disbursements. Tests treasury resilience under a localized crisis.

Upside scenario: accelerated collections (effective dunning, discounts granted), normal disbursements. Shows the headroom if the company tightens the customer side.

How Procura generates the 13-week forecast

Procura aggregates the 13-week flows automatically from already-entered data. Receipt side: issued customer invoices with due dates, partial collections recorded, recurring subscriptions.

Disbursement side: open POs with planned delivery dates, received supplier invoices with due dates, planned payroll, imported bank installments, country-specific tax due dates.

The user adds qualitative assumptions (growth customers, expected recovery on a dispute) directly in the screen. The dashboard updates the projection in real time and flags every at-risk week.